Even though Europe appears to be in the middle of an interminable crisis, our generation has proven to be one of the most fortunate in history. Byron Wein, president of Blackstone Advisory Partners LP and one of the most prestigious strategists in international finance, reminds us of this fact. The strength of the numbers is incontestable for any analysis. Over the past 50 years the global GDP has grown an average of 3.6% per year. We know that GDP doesn’t coincide with wealth, but it’s the statistical measure that best approximates it. Even with all the distinctions, we can reasonably say that global wealth has increased at a significant rate over the past half century. The value is the sum of two addenda: the increases in employment and productivity, whose contributions were almost equal. The combination of quantity and quality has, therefore, worked well. More and more salaried workers have been used, who have been allowed to work with increasingly refined instruments. The massive exodus from agriculture to industry is the most symbolic explanation of the phenomenon; the extraordinary example of China represents the most clamorous. In any case, the next 50 years could be very different, and for this reason the past—at least economically for industrialized countries—could be mourned in the future. In fact, according to a study done by the McKinsey Global Institute, one of the two growth factors—demographics and productivity—will be almost stable. The population will grow 0.3% per year, while productivity should retain the same growth rhythm of 1.8%. The resulting GDP growth will be equal to 2.1% per year, which is 40% less than the value we’re used to. Fertility rates are decelerating. Europe and Japan are ageing societies. Soon, China will be as well due to single-child policies and economic dynamics that impose more weighty family planning decisions. Better living conditions cause people to reflect on personal commitments; access to sanitary systems and social security suggest rational choices beyond the emotional. The biggest contribution to global population growth will come from India, where socio-economic structures are still affected by tradition. There is nothing left but the search for quality to maintain a growth rate possible of supporting planetary needs. The track is well known in academia. On one hand, emerging countries can and must assimilate the most valid technologies. In the ten-year run, the economic catch up will be closer, not just a mirage. Contemporaneously, industrialized countries will need to cement themselves in a more sophisticated challenge, that of innovation. Therefore, utilizing best practices—invention and duplication—will be the only way to continue to guarantee reasonable growth. With fewer people working, it will serve to support retirees, still active despite graying hair.
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