Several US analysts fear that in the end the PCC will not be able to retain power unless it becomes increasingly nationalistic and war mongering. Eventually, they fear, they will have no alternative but war.
Possible, but the hope that something may change is also a good reason not to rush this outcome. I mean a trade war does not necessarily leads to war, Chinese are very aware they have cheated after they accessed WTO and they thought sooner or later the feast would be over, they have stolen more than they ever hoped they would, they are satisfied. Fucking around with Taiwan and the man-made islands would be a blow-out.
To put things into context: china foreign trade has been coming down every years as a % of GDP for the last 3 to 5 years. Today China’s export are 20% of GDP, down from 30%, same as India up from 10 to 20%. In 2016 India passed China for the 1 st ever as FDI destination. China’s economy has become more and more domestic oriented for several year as if they were planning for a protectionist back lash.
As far as war, it does not necessarily means a war against USA, it could be a limited war against Vietnam, like Deng did in 1979 to consolidate his power
http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2065799/china-steps-preparedness-possible-military-conflict-us
China ‘steps up preparedness for possible military conflict with US’
This rhetoric is fairly normal, but we must not box Xi in a corner, nationalistic sentiments from the web may overcome him, you cannot imagine how belligerent young chinese are.
I am always shocked of how easily it is for mild innocent polite kids to contemplate war with Vietnam, Japan, Taiwan and maybe USA in the Pacific, I observe in shock when they suggest it for the most irrelevant reasons. I think it has also to do with propaganda. For China leaders it is imperative to look very nationalistic: we should never allow for the formation of a gigantic wave of web-based go to war campaign bottom-up. It is true that China government can control the web, but if they realise they are losing the control of public opinion, and thus the Party is losing control on the right, wing we may be in some serious stuff. Provoking them is risky. They may back off, but we should make sure they do not lose face with their “voters”.
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