It’s not hard to connect Taiwan’s recent electoral results with the demonstrations in Hong Kong. The repression—albeit not military like Tiananmen—of the protests had inevitable consequence on the island already known as Formosa in the west. Hong Kong’s democratic requests were disregarded even before the intervention of the police. The arrests, pepper spray, and antagonizing the remaining population first disoriented then defeated the pro-democracy activists. It was easy for the local government to contrast those thinking with their wallets against those who fought with their hearts and minds. The Hong Kong Governor’s subordination to Beijing’s orders was the fuse that made the electoral protests explode in Taiwan. The traditionalist and pro-Chinese party, the Kuomintang, suffered a resounding defeat in the latest elections. Despite being a local election, the result was so clamorous that it caused the resignation of both the prime minister and the head of the majority party, Ma Yng-jeou. The party he presided over is the party of Jian Je Shi (known by the older transliteration, Chiang Kai Scek), the nationalist movement that engaged a civil war with the CPC after Japan retreated in 1945. After its defeat, it fled to Taiwan. The island became the anti-Maoist bastion, which the US protected for military and ideological reasons during the Cold War. After many years, the situation crystallized: China considered Taiwan a rebellious province without being able to repatriate it. The island is de facto independent even if it is excluded from international organizations and has very limited bilateral relations. Among these, its defense agreement with the US has made the impossibility of a Chinese military attack without consequence unimaginable. In this situation, Beijing’s weapon for reconquering Taiwan’s patriots was the economy. The rebellious island is more and more tied to the Mainland by trade, capital, and human resources. China is Taiwan’s primary commercial partner, and about 1 million of its 23 million citizens live on the continent. Therefore, it’s a peculiar situation, where the passing of time has favored integration, and this could lead to a “soft” reunification, a formal seal on a fait accompli. In this framework, the relationship with Ma’s Kuomintang had become stronger. The North Star has always been the magic formula Hong Kong used: “one country, two systems.” In any case, the promise to maintain the status quo for 50 years has been called into question by Beijing’s rigidity. Hong Kong and Taiwan—both inhabited only by Chinese—have standards of living and access to democratic freedoms unachievable in China. The fear of losing its diversity has lead to demonstration and electoral protests. Now the Taiwanese elections have delivered a majority—albeit on an administrative session—to the opposition, the Democratic Progressive Party. Its electoral campaign insisted on the dangerous ties with China. Even from an economic perspective the results are negative. Growth is low because Beijing’s momentum has stalled, transferring jobs to the mainland has cost the island thousands of positions, and living expenses have grown disproportionately like the consequences of Chinese speculation. The DPP is accentuating its democratic and pro-independence views. The 2016 elections will be the showdown of irreconcilable differences. If they prevail, the tensions could explode or, at the opposite end of the hypotheses spectrum, the island could remain Chinese from an ethnic perspective but Taiwanese when it comes to politics, de facto or de jure.
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